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Patrick Walsh

I like to move it. Move it.

Oscar Pixxx

posted Friday, 22 February 2008

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Alright friendo, here are my Oscar picks. Feel free to use them in your pools, but don't get pissed at me if you lose. I am guessing on some of the extremely minor categories -- which I still say should not be a part of the telecast, since no one watching has ever seen any of the nominated...shorts, for example. Agree? Disagree? Want to tell me some more about how I "don't get" the "deep," "profound" "masterpiece" There Will Be Blood? That's what the comments are for. Good luck!

BEST PICTURE

Will Win: No Country for Old Men

Should Win: No Country for Old Men

The Departed win last year shows the Oscars are willing to embrace the dark and violent. And for the second year in a row, the film that is actually the best picture will win Best Picture. Imagine that.

BEST DIRECTOR

Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men

Should Win: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men 

Don't even see this as a contest, really.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Diablo Cody, Juno

Should Win: Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

Diablo Cody is the story of the year! Who knows what outrageous thing she'll say up at the podium!?!? She's so deliciously witty and edgy! Give me a break. Juno will win because it's the most obviously written of the nominees, and that should be what puts it in fifth place. Excuse me, fourth place. What the fuck is Ratatouille doing here?  

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Will Win: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men 

Should Win: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men

Again, not even a contest. 

BEST ACTOR

Will Win: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Should Win: Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah

Day-Lewis' effective but overrated work in an effective but overrated film is a guaranteed win. It's the kind of sceaming, nearly hammy performance that Oscar will always reward over quieter, more internal work like Jones' -- who gave the best performance of the year and of his career in Elah

BEST ACTRESS

Will Win: Julie Christie, Away From Her

Should Win: Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose

I didn't find Christie to be anything special in Away From Her, one of the most depressing movies of the year. But she's old, and will win. Cotillard gave a great performance in the agonizingly dull French film Rose, but the movie is...French. And agonizingly dull.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Will Win: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Should Win: Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

A very strong category, I'd be okay with any of the nominees and certainly Hal Holbrook taking the prize. Holbrook may upset -- he made me cry...and is very old. But Bardem is a villain for the ages.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Will Win: Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone

Should Win: Tilda Swinton, Michael Clayton

This is a far stronger category than Best Actress, and I'd be happy with either Ryan or Swinton. For me, though, Swinton gave the best performance in Michael Clayton, and the best female performance of the year. If Blanchett wins for her adequate Bob Dylan impression, Ruby Dee wins for being black and on the verge of death, or Saoirse Ronan wins for being young and British, I'll throw something.

BEST ART DIRECTION

Will Win: Sweeney Todd

Should Win: Sweeney Todd

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Will Win: There Will Be Blood

Should Win: The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford

A win for Jesse James should be a no-brainer, but I strongly doubt its chances. 

BEST FILM EDITING

Will Win: No Country for Old Men

Should Win: No Country for Old Men

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Will Win: Atonement

Should Win: Atonement

That shit with the typewriters was the only fresh thing I heard this year, movie-musicwise.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Will Win: "Falling Slowly," Once

Should Win: "Falling Slowly," Once

Three songs from Enchanted? Really? Hum one for me. That's what I thought.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Will Win: No End in Sight

Should Win: Sicko

Here's the difference -- the slobbered-over No End in Sight presented facts that anyone who follows the news should already know, in a dry and talky manner. Sicko shook me up, moved me, told me a lot of things I didn't know, took an active stance, and left me wanting to make a change. It won't win, because people hate Michael Moore. 

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Will Win: Freeheld

Should Win: Haven't seen any of these. 

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

Will Win: The Counterfeiters

Should Win: Haven't seen any of these, and I see a fair amount of foreign movies. The Academy always screws up royally on this category with all their rules. But The Counterfeiters is Holocausty, and will therefore win.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Will Win: Ratatouille

Should Win: Persepolis

Just so we're clear -- Ratatouille is about the ghost of an obese chef, who recruits a rat to cook in his restaurant. Then the rat sits on a teenager's head and guides him through cooking delicious meals by pulling on his hair. This is the movie everyone thinks is so amazing? We saw the same thing? Okay. Just making sure. 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Will Win: I Met the Walrus

Should Win: Haven't seen any of these.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Will Win: At Night

Should Win: Haven't seen any of these.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Will Win: Atonement

Should Win: Atonement

BEST MAKEUP

Will Win: La Vie en Rose

Should Win: Norbit

You know you want to hear the words "Academy Award winner Norbit." And for serious -- it's the best makeup of these choices. Won't happen, though.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Will Win: Transformers

Should Win: Transformers

BEST SOUND MIXING

Will Win: Transformers

Should Win: No Country for Old Men

BEST SOUND EDITING

Will Win: Transformers

Should Win: No Country for Old Men 

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1. david left...
Friday, 22 February 2008 4:00 pm

i just watched Ratatouille after having no interest in seeing it. I was surprised that I liked it so much. Rats in a restaurant... peace on earth.... that's what it's about.

i agree with most of your picks especially no country for old men for best pic. i liked juno much more than you apparently did but having recently watched the two of them back to back, there's no contest which is a better film. and like you i wouldn't mind if diablo didn't get a chance to speak a word sunday night.


2. Erik left...
Saturday, 23 February 2008 3:20 pm

Sorry you didn't "get" Ratoutille. Makes me think I shouldn't have passed on the opportunity to see There Will Be Blood.


3. Jackson left...
Saturday, 23 February 2008 5:11 pm

Not a bad list, although as someone who counted Ratatouille, Juno and There Will Be Blood among his top ten favorite movies of the year, I think you're being a bit harsh on them. This reads a lot like The Hater from the Onion A.V. Club, actually, and we all know what a barrel of laughs she is.

I agree, I give, I think No Country For Old Men (which I loved, by the way. I just loved There Will Be Blood more) will win Best Picture. That being said, I think they'll split Best Director and Best Picture so that P.T. Anderson will win Best Director. And yes, our bet is still on. Fucker.

I think everything else we're in agreement on, except I think Cate Blanchett will win for Best Supporting Actress. Ruby Dee was in American Gangster for eleven fucking minutes, for God's sake, but you're right, she's old and black and legendary, so they might throw her a bone. This category is fucked, it's a four-way tossup. I think everybody has a good shot except for Saoirse Ronan.


4. Patrick Walsh left...
Sunday, 24 February 2008 6:11 am

David,

I liked Ratatouille too, I really did, but Best Screenplay??? Ga-wha?

Erik,

Now I didn't "get" a movie about an animated rat chef? Just stating that I think a movie is overpraised doesn't mean I didn't understand it. I'm not retarded. I think I pieced all the intricacies of Ratatouille together, believe me. And you can still see There Will Be Blood. It still exists.

Jackson,

What, are these people family members? Close friends? How can I be too harsh on them? I liked all three movies! I just didn't cream my jeans over them. Don't think they deserve all the jeans-creaming. That's all. If I said "all these movies are utterly worthless, that's one thing, but I went through a thorough dissection of what didn't work about There Will Be Blood, gave Juno a B+ despite major reservations, and I just happen to think it's hilarious that a movie about an OBESE GHOST CHEF AND A RAT WHO PULLS ON HAIR TO GUIDE COOKING is nominated for Best Screenplay. That is all.


5. John J left...
Sunday, 24 February 2008 3:21 pm

First, I'd like to challenge you contention that "you are not retarded." Who are you fooling? All joking aside, do you think the overpraise for There Will Be Blood has spawned resentment that prevents you from being objective? That certainly happened to me with American Beauty way back when. I have not seen No Country for Old Men, but I trust your judgment that it's a better movie. I did see There Will Be Blood, however, and I thought it was better than you (apparently) give it credit for. That said, I'd agree it's not a ground-breaking masterpiece. John


6. Erik Nelson left...
Sunday, 24 February 2008 5:28 pm

Nice picks Pat, we were pretty much the same except on shorts and sound editing, although I think you enjoyed Atonement and Michael Clayton far more than myself. Blood was good but overrated, No Country however was phenomenal


7. RØB left...
Monday, 25 February 2008 12:32 pm :: http://www.pancakeproductions.net

Just for fun, I changed all of my picks to your own for my PredictTheOscars.com pool this year (you should do it yourself next year). Know that I say the following without resentment or really care of any kind, and that I take full responsibility for having done what I did, and that it was merely an experiment, and the prizes from that site for winning are probably not that good anyway, and even if they were I wouldn't care as I do it mostly for fun, but before I changed my answers to yours, I had correctly picked best short film (animated), best short film (live action), best makeup, and best actress.

As for the short films, is there really noplace to see them where you are? They typically will do programs comprising the nominated shorts at the Tivoli or Plaza Frontenac in the handful of weeks between the nomination announcements and the actual awards...figured if there was a way to see them here, there'd be a way to see them out there. No?

That COUNTERFEITERS movie actually does look pretty good, caught a preview for it before PERSEPOLIS a few weeks ago.

As usual, it was a night of some pretty awesome surprises and (probably) even more disappointments. I suspect we'll hear from you about it soon, though!


8. Erik left...
Monday, 25 February 2008 4:31 pm

I think you took my Ratoutille comment too harshly, as it was mostly a joke in response to the vitriol directed at you by your lukewarm response to TWBB.


9. Matthew left...
Tuesday, 26 February 2008 9:00 pm :: http://www.turboshark.blogspot.com

Hey Erik, "Vitriol." Isn't that a pill women take for cramps? Never makes you drowsy, never makes your urine stink: it's Vitriol!

Woman: "Before Vitriol, my cramps were so bad I threw up constantly for seven weeks! Now, I can go to indoors again! Thanks Vitriol!"


10. Jackson left...
Wednesday, 27 February 2008 3:26 pm

FUCKING Transformers. You couldn't take home fucking Sound Mixing? Killed my Oscar pool. More than meets the eye, my wrinkly nutsack.


11. Nutsy Fagan left...
Saturday, 1 March 2008 12:10 pm :: http://nutsyfagan.blog-city.com

I no can like this lack of posting....you are officially too busy!


12. Rick B. left...
Monday, 3 March 2008 1:20 pm

Pat, I went to see "No Country For Old Men" on Saturday, 1 March at the theater in Jerseyville (hick town). When it ended, there was complete silence in the theater. Nobody moved to stand up. Nobody was clapping. Just a couple hundred heads frozen in a blank stare at the black screen as credits rolled. Finally, after about 8 seconds (which is a long time for crowd to sit still) somebody shouted, "What!?". At this, the entire theater erupted in various displays of disgust and disappointment. I thought they were gonna raid the box office and demand refunds.

As for me, I was with the crowd. I don't get it. It was like the movie opened with the story in-progress, much like the feeling you get when you flip through channels and settle for some movie you have never seen, but which has been playing awhile....you stay with it and hope that you can figure out what is going on in order to enjoy it until the end. NCFOM was just like this...except when the movie ends, that was the feeling you get when the above scenario ends with a power outtage, and you are just sitting there in the dark, wondering what the ending was.

I am too old for this shit.


13. Jackson left...
Tuesday, 11 March 2008 3:38 am

Rick B-

If, for whatever reason, you check this comments section in the future, it might help to view No Country For Old Men this way. It is a film about what drives us forward. Look, most of life is driven by money, right? You get up in the morning to go to work, but why? So you can earn money to put food in your mouth and a roof over your head. All the necessities of life.

No Country For Old Men, right in the beginning, removes money from the equation. There's two million dollars up in the air. Josh Brolin's character has the money, so he doesn't need it. Javier Bardem's character doesn't care about the money, so he doesn't want it. Tommy Lee Jones' character doesn't know about the money, so he doesn't need it or want it. They represent three forms of the male archetype: Love of family, love of destruction and love of justice.

Brolin, with his simple love for his wife, dies, fades, fizzles out halfway through. Bardem, with his love only for death and violence, perseveres. There will always be the urge to kill, to occupy, to destroy. Tommy Lee Jones, at the end, talking about his dreams, represents hope. He is belief. Faith. It might be simply the thing that we lean on to keep us going, but in the grand scheme of things, isn't that the thing that life is built on? That belief that things will get better?